Daily Intraday Market Outlook • February 7, 2025

1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets will focus on the mixed US January jobs report and escalating tariff rhetoric from President Trump as the dominant drivers shaping intraday flows. Risk sentiment remained cautious with safe-haven demand supporting gold and the Japanese yen, while the US dollar found selective bids on dips amid uncertainty over reciprocal tariffs. Volatility is expected to remain elevated around key data releases and any fresh policy headlines.

Intraday flows likely driven by reaction to the softer-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (+143K) and sharp drop in University of Michigan consumer sentiment, which fueled rate-path uncertainty. Asia session saw JPY strength on domestic factors, while London and New York overlaps could see heightened activity as traders digest tariff postponements on Canada/Mexico and ongoing US-China/EU tensions. Volatility expected around US data clusters and any real-time trade policy updates.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts

• US January Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payrolls) – Released February 7 (morning US time / afternoon SGT). Status: Confirmed. Why it matters: Softer +143K payrolls with 4.0% unemployment and strong wages created rate uncertainty. Expected volatility impact: High.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim Feb) – Released February 7. Status: Confirmed. Why it matters: Sharp drop to 67.8 highlighted inflation concerns. Expected volatility impact: Medium-High.
• Trump Reciprocal Tariff Announcements – Ongoing signals and partial 30-day postponements on Canada/Mexico. Status: Live policy developments. Why it matters: Driving risk-off flows and USD/JPY moves. Expected volatility impact: High.
• Wholesale Inventories/Sales & Baker Hughes Rig Count – February 7 releases. Status: Scheduled. Why it matters: Additional context on US economy and energy. Expected volatility impact: Medium.

4. FX Intraday Bias and Drivers

USD: Mildly bullish bias. Resilient on tariff uncertainty despite mixed jobs data. Primary driver: Trade policy rhetoric and wage growth. Key catalyst: Any fresh Trump announcements.

EUR: Neutral to slightly bearish. Pressure from ECB dovish expectations and Eurozone stagnation risks. Spot near 1.03–1.05 with downside skew from potential EU tariffs.

GBP: Neutral with mild downside risks. Trading around 1.23–1.24, sensitive to BoE signals and UK data. Support tests possible near 1.2335.

JPY: Bullish (yen strengthening). USD/JPY weakened toward 150.96–151.8 on strong Japanese data and BoJ rate hike expectations – fourth weekly gain.

CHF: Neutral with safe-haven support in uncertain tariff environment.

CAD: Neutral to mildly USD-supportive. Influenced by oil prices and 30-day tariff suspension on Canada.

AUD: Neutral with potential upside if supports hold above 0.6372, tied to risk sentiment and China exposure. Wealth builders monitoring commodity-linked currencies for diversification opportunities.

NZD: Neutral, similar commodity-driven profile amid broader G10 volatility.

Overall FX theme: Tariff uncertainty created choppy trading with selective USD bids and JPY outperformance.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

Gold (XAUUSD): Bullish bias, on track for sixth weekly gain. Spot near $2,861 after touching record highs. Reaction to safe-haven flows from US-China trade tensions and mixed US data. Bulls remain in control.

Silver (XAGUSD): Mildly positive but volatile, trading near $31.94–$32.30. Correlated to gold with industrial demand component amid risk-off sentiment.

Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): Neutral to cautious. Sensitive to tariff impacts on global growth and energy demand. Geopolitical and supply concerns remain key volatility triggers.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

Bitcoin (BTC): Volatile with rebound attempts, trading in $95,677–$99,120 range (around $97,282 in recent updates). High correlation to risk sentiment and tariff-driven equity moves. Temporary relief from policy pauses aided recoveries.

Ethereum (ETH): Stronger rebounds noted (up to ~$2,809 in sessions). Top-2 market cap asset reacting to broader macro uncertainty.

Top additional cryptocurrencies by market cap showed similar choppy behavior. Overall crypto flows tied to equities, gold, and tariff-related risk sentiment rather than isolated fundamentals. Liquidity sensitive to macro headlines.

7. Liquidity and Volatility Map (Singapore Time – SGT)

8. Risk Factors

• Escalating trade wars or surprise tariff implementations could trigger sharp risk-off moves, boosting gold and JPY while pressuring risk assets including crypto.
• Sticky US wages limiting Fed cut expectations may support USD selectively but weigh on growth-sensitive currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD).
• Unexpected consumer sentiment weakness or retaliatory policy moves from China/EU could create liquidity gaps and correlation breakdowns.
• Intervention talk around USD/JPY remains a constant tail risk for short-term positioning.

Traders should remain flexible as tariff developments can shift sentiment rapidly.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme remains tariff uncertainty intersecting with mixed US economic data, creating a two-way but volatile environment. Safe-haven assets like gold and the yen are finding consistent bids, while the dollar holds selective support on policy headlines. Best volatility windows are centered around the US data releases and any real-time trade policy updates.

Key risks include sudden escalation in trade tensions or further consumer confidence deterioration. Stay nimble, manage position sizes around high-impact windows, and monitor real-time headlines closely. For traders looking to sharpen execution in these conditions, exploring structured approaches to trading performance can help navigate choppy markets more effectively. Wishing all readers steady hands and clear setups today.