Daily Intraday Market Outlook • February 10, 2025

1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets entered February 10, 2025 with mixed risk sentiment as fresh U.S. tariff announcements, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports plus reciprocal measures, triggered initial risk-off flows before modest rebounds in equities and selective currency strength. Global traders remained focused on escalating trade tensions and their implications for growth, inflation, and central bank policy paths.

Intraday flows were primarily driven by headline-driven volatility around U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration. Safe-haven assets attracted bids while commodity-linked currencies faced pressure. Volatility is most likely to spike on any escalation or de-escalation of tariff rhetoric, particularly during London and New York sessions where liquidity is deepest.

Asia saw cautious positioning overnight, London flows emphasized safe-haven demand, and New York is expected to react to any fresh U.S. commentary or data signals. Overall, the session favored selective trading opportunities in safe-haven pairs amid elevated but manageable volatility.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts

• Event: U.S. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports announced (effective March) with reciprocal measures
  Time: Ongoing headline flow (no fixed release time)
  Status: Confirmed policy announcement
  Why it matters: Directly impacts global trade flows, equities, and currency positioning
  Expected volatility impact: High
• Event: Lingering inflation worries and mixed U.S. data signals (jobs/CPI path implications)
  Time: Continuous market digestion
  Status: Ongoing
  Why it matters: Shapes Fed rate expectations amid tariff-induced inflation risks
  Expected volatility impact: Medium
• Event: Corporate earnings season updates
  Time: Throughout NY session
  Status: Scheduled releases
  Why it matters: Provides offset to tariff concerns, especially in tech
  Expected volatility impact: Medium
• Event: Potential China and allied retaliation commentary
  Time: Intraday headline-driven
  Status: Expected responses
  Why it matters: Could escalate trade war fears
  Expected volatility impact: High

4. FX Intraday Bias and Drivers

USD: Mildly bearish bias. Renewed trade and tariff uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment, though safe-haven bids offered some resilience. Mixed U.S. data added caution.

EUR: Neutral to slightly bullish. EUR/USD consolidated with modest upside attempts as ECB caution was offset by relative U.S. policy uncertainty.

GBP: Neutral with slight upside. GBP/USD showed resilience in consolidation, benefiting from broad USD softness amid limited UK-specific catalysts.

JPY: Bullish bias. USD/JPY faced downside pressure on safe-haven flows into yen, amplified by Japanese political developments and stimulus talks.

CHF: Bullish bias. Traditional safe-haven demand surged on heightened tariff uncertainty.

CAD: Bearish bias. USD/CAD weakened due to heavy exposure to U.S. trade risks, especially steel/aluminum and energy sectors.

AUD: Bearish bias. Risk-off flows from global trade tensions hit the commodity-linked Aussie, with added China retaliation pressure.

NZD: Mildly bearish bias. Similar dynamics to AUD, with greater sensitivity to global risk sentiment.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

Gold (XAUUSD ~$2,915): Bullish bias. Strong safe-haven demand on tariff uncertainty, trade war fears, and potential inflation pass-through. Traders watched for further upside on any escalation in headlines.

Silver (XAGUSD ~$32.75): Mildly bullish. Followed gold’s move but tempered by industrial sensitivity; broad precious metals support from policy instability.

Oil (WTI ~$71.54 / Brent ~$75.19): Mixed to bearish bias initially. Trade tensions weighed on demand outlook, though geopolitical risks and volatility provided some floor. Focus remained on U.S.-China dynamics.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

Bitcoin (BTC): Volatile/neutral bias with swings in the $66K–$69K area. Acted as a high-beta risk asset under tariff-driven caution; funding rates and options skew reflected downside protection demand, with rebounds on any easing of headlines.

Ethereum (ETH): Similar volatile bias, closely correlated to BTC and broader risk sentiment. Selective speculative interest appeared in altcoin funding but remained secondary to macro noise.

Top 3 additional (e.g., Solana and equivalents): Higher beta moves following BTC/ETH, with overall crypto market feeling equity and tariff spillover effects. Compressed volatility but elevated put protection demand.

Crypto largely mirrored risk-asset behavior rather than serving as a haven during this session.

7. Liquidity and Volatility Map (Singapore Time – SGT)

Deepest liquidity and most pronounced moves expected during London/New York overlap, especially around any fresh tariff or retaliation updates.

8. Risk Factors

• Escalation of U.S. tariffs into broader trade war with retaliatory measures, particularly from China, potentially amplifying risk-off moves.
• Higher inflation pass-through from tariffs complicating Fed policy expectations.
• Liquidity gaps in thinner risk assets (commodity currencies, crypto) during headline spikes.
• Correlation breakdowns between safe-havens and equities if geopolitical overlays intensify.
• Unexpected de-escalation headlines triggering rapid mean-reversion and stop runs.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on February 10, 2025 centered on U.S. tariff uncertainty driving safe-haven demand into JPY, CHF, and gold while pressuring commodity currencies and risk assets including crypto. Traders found the highest-probability volatility windows during London and New York sessions where liquidity allowed for cleaner execution around headline flows.

Key risks remain centered on potential escalation or rapid de-escalation of trade rhetoric. Selective longs in safe-haven assets on dips and caution in commodity-tied currencies offered tactical setups, but tight risk management was essential. Stay nimble, monitor real-time developments, and consider how these dynamics fit into your broader wealth-building and trading strategies.