Daily Intraday Market Outlook • February 3, 2025
1. Intraday Executive Summary
Markets opened with heightened volatility as U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs — 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China — triggering immediate risk-off sentiment and trade war fears. Safe-haven flows supported gold and the Japanese yen, while commodity currencies and risk assets faced selling pressure. Partial tariff pauses announced later in the session (particularly on Mexico and Canada) triggered partial recoveries across equities, crypto, and some FX pairs.
Intraday flows were driven by headline sensitivity rather than traditional data releases. Asia saw early safe-haven bidding in JPY and gold, London and New York sessions amplified moves on negotiation news, with volatility most pronounced around tariff-related headlines. Liquidity remained functional but strained in high-beta assets during the initial selloff phase.
Traders should remain alert to further policy whiplash as negotiations continue. The dominant theme remains tariff uncertainty creating choppy, event-driven conditions across all asset classes.
2. Daily Trading Dashboard
| Asset | Intraday Bias | Key Driver | Key Level Focus | Volatility Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD (DXY) | Neutral / Mixed | Tariff announcements & pauses | Key support near recent lows | Headline-driven spikes |
| EUR/USD | Mild Bullish | Relative USD softness | 1.08 – 1.09 zone | London/NY overlap |
| GBP/USD | Steady / Neutral | BoE expectations & safe-haven flows | 1.23 – 1.25 area | Data & news flow |
| USD/JPY | Bearish (JPY strength) | Risk-off safe-haven demand | 150.00 psychological level | Asia & global risk moves |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | Bullish | Safe-haven buying on trade fears | Record highs ~$2,830 – $2,857 | Tariff headline windows |
| Crude Oil | Bearish | Canada tariff exposure & growth fears | Recent session lows | Energy-linked flows |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | Volatile / Two-way | Risk sentiment & liquidations | $91,000 – $100,000 zone | High-beta headline reactions |
3. Macro Catalysts
- Event: U.S. President Trump tariff announcements (25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China)
Time: Early Tuesday session (effective with partial pauses announced intraday)
Status: Confirmed & market-moving
Why it matters: Sparked immediate risk-off flows and trade war fears
Volatility Impact: High - Event: Partial tariff pause announcements (Mexico delayed 1 month, similar signals on Canada)
Time: Intraday during U.S. session
Status: Confirmed
Why it matters: Triggered partial recovery in risk assets
Volatility Impact: High - Event: Limited U.S. economic data releases
Time: Standard U.S. session
Status: Low impact
Why it matters: Focus remained on trade policy developments
Volatility Impact: Low
Broader context includes upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and ongoing earnings season, but tariff headlines dominated the narrative on February 3.
4. FX Intraday Bias and Drivers
USD: Mixed to slightly weaker bias. Initial strength from tariff news faded on pause announcements. Primary driver: tariff uncertainty and potential inflation/growth impacts. FX traders watched negotiation outcomes closely.
EUR: Mild positive bias versus USD (EUR/USD trading in 1.08-1.09 context). Supported by relatively lower expected rate cuts versus the Fed and trade war spillover resilience.
GBP: Steady to slightly firmer bias (GBP/USD near 1.23-1.25). Awaiting Bank of England signals while exhibiting some safe-haven characteristics amid volatility.
JPY: Clear safe-haven strength; USD/JPY testing levels near 150. Benefited directly from global risk-off flows.
CHF: Firm bias as a traditional safe-haven currency amid escalating trade tensions.
CAD: Weaker bias due to direct tariff exposure on Canada, compounded by oil linkage. EUR/CAD held firmer on CAD softness.
AUD & NZD: Mixed to softer bias, both commodity-linked and sensitive to China tariff risks and broader risk sentiment. Wealth builders monitoring commodity currency exposure.
Overall FX theme: Safe-haven currencies (JPY, CHF) outperformed while commodity currencies faced headwinds in a choppy USD environment.
5. Commodities Intraday Setup
Gold (XAUUSD): Positive safe-haven driven bias. Hit record intraday high near $2,830.49/oz with futures settling around $2,857 before closing near $2,794.50. Drivers: tariff-induced inflation and growth fears outweighing occasional USD strength. Strong safe-haven bidding observed.
Silver (XAGUSD): Weaker performance relative to gold, trading near $31.07 (-0.77%). Technical rebounds noted but overall mixed impact from tariff/risk-off dynamics. Gold/silver ratio around 89.95.
Crude Oil: Bearish pressure, down approximately 5% in related sessions. Linked to CAD weakness and fears of global growth slowdown from trade disruptions. Canada tariff exposure added direct downside risk to energy complex.
Precious metals benefited from safe-haven demand while oil faced headwinds, highlighting divergence in the commodities space. Marketing professionals in the energy sector noted heightened volatility in related flows.
6. Crypto Intraday Flow
Bitcoin (BTC): Highly volatile, initially negative bias with drop to three-week low near $91,130–$91,441 before sharp recovery above $100K at points, closing in $95K–$97K range. Drivers: tariff fears spooked risk assets initially, though partial tariff pauses supported rebound. Liquidations exceeded $2B market-wide.
Ethereum (ETH): Sharper declines with lows near $2,000–$2,368, partial recovery to around $2,592. Higher beta to equities amplified moves during risk-off phase.
Top 3 by market cap (XRP, Solana): XRP showed dramatic 40% surge from session lows to near $2.7 at peaks; Solana erased losses and rose over 5% toward $210. Broader altcoins experienced heavy liquidations followed by stabilization on delay hopes.
Crypto behaved as a high-beta risk asset with massive intraday swings tied directly to tariff headline flow and sentiment shifts.
7. Liquidity and Volatility Map
| Time Window (SGT) | Expected Activity | Volatility Level |
|---|---|---|
| Asia Open (08:00 – 12:00) | Safe-haven bidding in JPY and gold | Medium-High |
| London Session (15:00 – 23:00) | Tariff news amplification & FX flows | High |
| New York Overlap (20:00 – 00:00) | Peak headline sensitivity & recoveries | Very High |
| Late NY / Post-Close | Position squaring on pause news | Medium |
8. Risk Factors
- Escalation of trade war via retaliatory measures from China, Canada, or Mexico
- Policy whiplash from further tariff adjustments or negotiation breakdowns
- Inflation pass-through fears impacting longer-term rate expectations
- Liquidity gaps in high-beta assets during rapid sentiment shifts
- Correlation breakdowns between traditional safe-havens and crypto during extreme moves
Traders are advised to maintain cautious positioning and tight risk management given the headline-driven nature of the session.
9. Conclusion
The dominant intraday theme on February 3, 2025 was tariff-driven volatility creating a classic risk-off environment. Safe-haven assets such as gold, JPY, and CHF found support while commodity currencies and crypto experienced sharp but partially reversible moves. Best volatility windows centered around tariff headline releases and the London-New York overlap.
With ongoing negotiations and potential for further policy updates, traders should stay nimble. Monitor key levels closely and consider opportunities in both directional safe-haven plays and volatility strategies. Always trade with disciplined risk controls in these uncertain conditions.
Stay informed, manage risk, and trade smart.