1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets displayed resilience on February 4, 2025, as the Trump administration delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days, while proceeding with 10% duties on Chinese imports that triggered swift Chinese retaliation on US coal, LNG, and oil effective February 10. This partial de-escalation eased immediate trade-war fears, supporting a modest risk-on sentiment and prompting a mild USD pullback alongside gains in equities.

Intraday flows were primarily driven by headline reactions to tariff developments, with initial uncertainty giving way to relief buying in risk assets. Volatility is expected to remain moderate, concentrated around any fresh trade-policy comments during the London and New York sessions. Asia saw relatively quiet positioning ahead of the European open, while New York liquidity should dominate directional moves as traders digest the implications for global supply chains.

Overall, the session bias leans toward cautious optimism, with wealth-building opportunities emerging in selective risk assets on any sustained relief rally, though lingering policy uncertainty keeps tail risks alive.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts & Events

Primary Catalyst: Trump tariff announcements and partial de-escalation (30-day delay on Mexico/Canada, 10% on China with retaliation scheduled for Feb 10).

• Event: US-China tariff developments & Chinese countermeasures
  Time: Ongoing headlines (peak impact expected during NY session)
  Status: Confirmed developments
  Why it matters: Directly influences risk sentiment, USD demand, and commodity flows
  Expected volatility impact: High
• Event: Corporate earnings (e.g., strong Palantir results)
  Time: US market hours
  Status: Scheduled
  Why it matters: Supports equity risk appetite
  Expected volatility impact: Medium
• Event: Mixed US data flow (ISM, consumer spending context)
  Time: Released earlier in week, digested today
  Status: Confirmed
  Why it matters: Feeds into Fed rate path expectations
  Expected volatility impact: Low to Medium

4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers

• USD: Mildly weaker bias. DXY around 97.62. Tariff delay reduced safe-haven demand, though policy uncertainty lingers. Rate differentials provide underlying support.
• EUR: Neutral to mildly bullish vs USD. EUR/USD near 1.03 levels. Supported by relative eurozone stability amid USD softness. Traders monitoring for further USD weakness.
• GBP: Bullish bias. GBP/USD showing strength around 1.22–1.24. Driven by BoE expectations and improved risk appetite.
• JPY: Mixed bias with defensive safe-haven support. USD/JPY pressured by risk-on flows despite wide rate differentials.
• CHF: Safe-haven bias performing well amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
• CAD: Weaker bias initially due to oil and tariff exposure; 30-day delay provided some relief.
• AUD: Mildly positive on risk-on sentiment and commodity exposure.
• NZD: Similar to AUD but slightly more vulnerable; supported by improved risk sentiment.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

• Gold (XAUUSD): Bullish bias near $2,813–$2,814 (up ~0.69%). Supported by modest USD weakness and lingering trade uncertainties. Potential for continued upside if momentum holds.
• Silver (XAGUSD): Positive bias near $31.51 (up ~1.42%). Following gold on industrial and hedging demand; gold/silver ratio around 89.
• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): Mixed to bearish tilt. Sensitive to tariff dynamics, China retaliation, and Middle East risks. Oil weakness also weighing on CAD.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

• Bitcoin (BTC): Bearish pressure, declining ~6% to around $95,680. Decoupled lower despite modest equity recovery, driven by deleveraging and profit-taking.
• Ethereum (ETH): Similar downside bias, tracking BTC lower.
• Broader Market (top by market cap): Cautious sentiment overall. No major positive catalysts; leverage unwind contributed to weakness amid macro uncertainty from tariffs.

Focus remains on correlation with risk assets and positioning flows rather than short-term hype.

7. Liquidity & Volatility Map (Singapore Time – SGT)

8. Risk Factors

• Escalation of US-China trade tensions via retaliatory duties starting Feb 10
• Inflation pass-through effects from implemented tariffs
• Geopolitical spillovers, particularly Middle East developments impacting oil
• Fed rate-path uncertainty and any surprise data or comments
• Liquidity gaps in thinner markets such as crypto and select energy contracts

Traders should remain agile as correlation breakdowns between equities and crypto could amplify moves.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on February 4, 2025, revolves around relief from the tariff delay on Mexico and Canada, fostering a modest risk-on recovery while keeping USD on the back foot. Best volatility windows are likely during the London-New York overlap, where liquidity peaks and fresh headlines can drive decisive moves in FX, commodities, and risk assets.

Key risks remain centered on any re-escalation with China and broader policy uncertainty. Stay disciplined, manage positions around high-impact windows, and consider how these dynamics may shape your marketing of trading strategies or client communications. Monitor developments closely and adapt as the session unfolds.