Daily Intraday Market Outlook • Monday, June 29, 2026

1. INTRADAY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Global risk sentiment remains cautious as markets digest the latest developments in US-Iran relations. Reports of both sides agreeing to pause hostilities and resume technical talks in Qatar have eased immediate geopolitical tensions, though uncertainty lingers over the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic shift has supported a modest recovery in risk appetite while weighing on safe-haven assets.

Key macro drivers center on de-escalation hopes in the Middle East alongside anticipation for upcoming US labor data and central bank communications. Intraday flows are likely driven by position adjustments ahead of the RBA minutes and broader positioning for Thursday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls. Volatility is expected around key session transitions, particularly during the London open and any headline flow from the Middle East.

Asian markets have traded with restraint, while traders prepare for potentially more active conditions in London and New York sessions as fresh catalysts emerge.

2. DAILY TRADING DASHBOARD

3. MACRO CATALYSTS

• Event: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  Time: Tuesday, ~09:30 SGT (expected release)
  Status: Confirmed scheduled
  Why it matters: Provides insights into RBA’s policy stance post recent employment data
  Expected volatility impact: Medium
• Event: API Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report
  Time: Tuesday, ~00:30 SGT
  Status: Confirmed scheduled
  Why it matters: Signals demand trends amid shifting Middle East dynamics
  Expected volatility impact: Medium
• Event: ECB Annual Forum (Lagarde speech)
  Time: Monday, European session
  Status: Confirmed scheduled
  Why it matters: Guidance on ECB response to energy price developments
  Expected volatility impact: Medium
• Event: US-Iran Technical Talks in Qatar
  Time: Tuesday (full day developments)
  Status: Confirmed scheduled
  Why it matters: Potential impact on energy supply and global risk sentiment
  Expected volatility impact: High

4. FX INTRADAY BIAS AND DRIVERS

USD: Around 101.35 DXY level, Neutral bias. Primary driver is reduced safe-haven demand amid US-Iran talks; key catalyst remains Thursday’s NFP. Price may consolidate as traders await labor data.

EUR: Near 1.1390, Bullish bias. Supported by pause in Middle East hostilities; focus on Lagarde speech. Stronger tone likely if risk sentiment improves further. trading participants monitor closely.

GBP: Near 1.3200, Neutral bias. Influenced by UK political developments including Burnham’s plans; safe-haven flows provide some headwind.

JPY: USD/JPY near 161.80, Bearish bias. Intervention fears cap upside despite broader USD dynamics.

CHF: USD/CHF near 0.8100, Neutral bias. SNB intervention readiness keeps franc supported in cautious environment.

CAD: USD/CAD near 1.4190, Bearish bias. Lower oil prices pressure commodity-linked loonie.

AUD: Near 0.6895, Neutral bias. Steady after improved unemployment data; RBA minutes in focus. wealth strategies often incorporate such stability.

NZD: Near 0.5640, Bullish bias. Benefits from reduced safe-haven demand.

5. COMMODITIES INTRADAY SETUP

Gold (XAU/USD) ~$4,060: Bearish bias. Reacting negatively to de-escalation hopes and steady USD; safe-haven flows diminished. Key driver remains geopolitical developments.

Silver (XAG/USD) ~$58.80: Bearish bias. Sensitive to inflation expectations and USD strength; capped by pause in Hormuz tensions.

WTI Crude ~$69.60-$69.80: Bearish bias. Significant pressure from anticipated restoration of flows through Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical risk premium has eased; API data will provide next trigger. marketing of energy-related insights remains relevant for traders.

6. CRYPTO INTRADAY FLOW

Bitcoin hovers near $60,000, showing Neutral bias with correlation to broader risk sentiment. Ethereum defends $1,500 support while Ripple steadies near $1.00. Top additional cryptocurrencies by market cap include Solana, BNB, and Cardano, all reflecting cautious positioning. Liquidity remains subdued amid Extreme Fear readings. No major scheduled catalysts today, yet volatility may rise with equity flows and Middle East headlines. Focus stays on sentiment shifts rather than directional conviction.

7. LIQUIDITY AND VOLATILITY MAP

8. RISK FACTORS

Unexpected headlines from US-Iran talks could rapidly shift sentiment and trigger liquidity gaps. Data surprises in upcoming US labor figures or RBA minutes may challenge current biases. Correlation breakdowns between oil, USD, and risk assets remain possible if geopolitical developments accelerate. Traders should monitor position squaring ahead of key releases.

9. TRADE OPPORTUNITIES FOR DAY TRADERS AND SCALPERS

↑ BUY EUR/USD at 1.1370
• Bias driver: Geopolitical de-escalation support
• Trigger: Hold above 1.1360 on Lagarde comments
• Target: 1.1425
• Stop: 1.1340
• Risk/Reward: 1:2.2
• Best window: 10:00-14:00 SGT

↓ SELL WTI Crude at 70.20
• Bias driver: Easing Hormuz supply risks
• Trigger: Rejection at recent highs
• Target: 68.80
• Stop: 70.80
• Risk/Reward: 1:1.8
• Best window: 20:00-23:00 SGT

↑ BUY AUD/USD at 0.6885
• Bias driver: Steady domestic data
• Trigger: Bounce from session low
• Target: 0.6925
• Stop: 0.6865
• Risk/Reward: 1:2
• Best window: Asian continuation

↓ SELL XAU/USD at 4065
• Bias driver: Reduced safe-haven appeal
• Trigger: Failure to hold $4050 support break
• Target: 4030
• Stop: 4080
• Risk/Reward: 1:1.9
• Best window: London session

↑ BUY BTC/USD at 59800
• Bias driver: Stabilizing risk sentiment
• Trigger: Defense of key support
• Target: 60800
• Stop: 59200
• Risk/Reward: 1:2
• Best window: NY overlap

↓ SELL USD/JPY at 162.10
• Bias driver: Intervention vigilance
• Trigger: Approach to psychological level
• Target: 161.20
• Stop: 162.60
• Risk/Reward: 1:1.7
• Best window: Asian hours

↑ BUY NZD/USD at 0.5630
• Bias driver: Easing USD pressure
• Trigger: Positive risk flows
• Target: 0.5670
• Stop: 0.5610
• Risk/Reward: 1:2.1
• Best window: 09:00-15:00 SGT

10. CONCLUSION

De-escalation signals in the Middle East dominate the intraday theme, fostering cautious optimism while pressuring safe-haven and energy assets. Best volatility windows align with European open flows and the London-New York overlap, where fresh positioning can drive meaningful moves.

Traders should remain agile amid evolving headlines and prepare for data releases later in the week. Discipline around risk management will prove essential in navigating current conditions.

Stay informed and selective with setups as the week progresses.