Daily Intraday Market Outlook • May 29, 2025
1. Intraday Executive Summary
Markets today focused on the significant relief rally triggered by a US federal court ruling blocking President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. This decision eased immediate trade-war fears, reducing safe-haven demand for the US Dollar while supporting risk sentiment across equities, commodities, and select risk currencies.
Intraday flows were primarily driven by profit-taking in previous safe-haven assets and rotation into risk-on plays. Asia sessions saw cautious positioning, London accelerated the risk-on tone, and New York is expected to extend the momentum with attention on any follow-through headlines. Volatility is most likely to occur around any fresh comments on trade policy or technical levels in USD pairs and oil.
Overall, the session reflected a calmer environment compared to April’s tariff-induced spikes, with liquidity holding steady and traders positioning for selective opportunities in a tariff-pause environment.
2. Daily Trading Dashboard
| Asset | Intraday Bias | Key Driver | Key Level Focus | Volatility Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY / USD | Bearish | Court blocks broad tariffs | 99.35 – 100.30 | London/NY overlap |
| EUR/USD | Neutral to Bullish | Tariff relief + ECB expectations | 1.1400 | European open |
| GBP/USD | Bullish | UK-US trade progress | 1.3456 | London session |
| USD/JPY | Bearish | Yen safe-haven flows | 144.02 – 145.91 | Tokyo/London |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | Neutral / Cautious | Risk-on tempering safe-haven bids | $3,312 | NY open |
| WTI Crude | Bearish | Reduced supply disruption fears | $60.94 | Data/inventory timing |
| Bitcoin | Mildly Bearish | Profit-taking after rally | $105,750 – $106,000 | US session |
3. Macro Catalysts & Economic Events
- Event: US Federal Court ruling blocking sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs (“Liberation Day” measures)
Time: Overnight / Early Asia (May 29, 2025)
Status: Confirmed
Why it matters: Eased trade-war fears, reduced USD safe-haven demand
Expected volatility impact: High - Event: Nvidia earnings reaction and broader tech sentiment
Time: Post-market (previous session spillover)
Status: Confirmed
Why it matters: Supported risk-on flows
Expected volatility impact: Medium - Event: Ongoing monitoring of US-China 90-day tariff pause
Time: Continuous
Status: In effect
Why it matters: Provides longer-term clarity on trade tensions
Expected volatility impact: Medium
No major scheduled economic data releases dominated the calendar, making the legal/trade headline the primary driver.
4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers
USD
DXY traded 99.35–100.30 with modest downside pressure. Bearish bias driven by reduced safe-haven demand following the court ruling on tariffs. Traders watched for any reversal attempts near 100.30.
EUR/USD
Near 1.1400 with mild upward resilience. Neutral to slightly bullish on tariff relief; supported by ECB policy expectations and broader euro strength.
GBP/USD
Around 1.3456 with solid gains. Bullish bias from UK-US trade deal progress and relative UK resilience. London session flows likely to dominate.
USD/JPY
Pressured to 144.02–145.91. Bearish for the pair as yen benefited from lingering uncertainties despite some BOJ flows.
USD/CHF
CHF gained ~0.42%. Bearish bias on traditional safe-haven support for the franc amid residual volatility.
USD/CAD
Modest moves with oil influence. Neutral bias; CAD sensitive to energy trade dynamics.
AUD/USD
Dipped toward 0.6410. Mildly bearish intraday due to commodity linkage and pockets of USD strength, despite overall risk-on.
NZD/USD
Near 0.5935–0.5965. Neutral to slightly bearish with similar commodity exposure.
5. Commodities Intraday Setup
Gold (XAUUSD)
Around $3,312.40 with modest volatility. Cautious/neutral bias as safe-haven demand eased on tariff relief. Drivers include USD moves, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. Watch for profit-taking near recent highs.
Silver (XAGUSD)
Up ~0.82%. Mildly bullish with industrial demand and precious metals rotation providing underlying support despite profit-taking.
Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
WTI near $60.94, Brent $64.15, down over 1%. Bearish intraday on reduced supply disruption fears from the tariff ruling and potential OPEC+ output considerations. Geopolitical offsets (Middle East, Russia sanctions) were present but secondary.
6. Crypto Intraday Flow
Bitcoin (BTC)
Slid to ~$105,750 before rebounding above $106,000 (down ~1.5%). Mildly bearish short-term corrective bias on profit-taking amid tariff-related risk sentiment and rotation into alts.
Ethereum (ETH)
Gains of 1–4% to $2,650–$2,725 with strong volume. Bullish bias supported by institutional interest, DeFi strength, and altseason signals.
Solana (SOL), XRP, BNB
SOL down ~1.8% near mid-$160s; XRP modestly higher; broader index soft. Mixed bias with altcoin strength versus BTC dominance (59–65% range). Drivers include ETF speculation and on-chain activity.
Crypto remained sensitive to macro and tariff headlines in a still constructive longer-term setup.
7. Liquidity & Volatility Map (Singapore Time – SGT)
| Time Window (SGT) | Expected Activity | Volatility Level |
|---|---|---|
| 08:00 – 12:00 | Tokyo/London handover, FX positioning | Medium |
| 14:00 – 18:00 | London session peak, GBP and EUR flows | High |
| 20:00 – 24:00 | NY open, overlap with London, risk asset moves | High |
| After 00:00 | Late NY / thin liquidity | Low to Medium |
8. Key Risk Factors
- Lingering trade policy uncertainty despite the court ruling – sudden appeals or new statements could reverse sentiment rapidly.
- Potential OPEC+ decisions or inventory data impacting oil supply outlook.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Strait of Hormuz risks) or US-Russia sanctions developments.
- Thin liquidity in crowded positions leading to amplified moves or deleveraging spikes.
- Correlation breakdowns between risk assets, USD, and commodities on any fresh headlines.
9. Conclusion
The dominant intraday theme on May 29, 2025, was relief-driven risk-on sentiment following the US court decision limiting sweeping tariffs. This weighed on the US Dollar while supporting selective risk currencies, equities, and altcoins. Best volatility windows remain during the London and New York overlap where flows are thickest.
Traders should remain agile around any fresh trade-related headlines and watch key technical levels closely. Selective longs in risk assets on dips, combined with caution on commodity shorts, offer the highest-probability setups today. Always manage risk tightly in this news-sensitive environment — stay sharp and trade responsibly.
Prepared for professional day traders and short-term macro scalpers. Cross-reference live sources before executing.