Daily Intraday Market Outlook • May 12, 2025

1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets opened the week with a strong risk-on rally after weekend negotiations in Geneva produced a surprise US-China tariff truce. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% (with a separate 20% fentanyl tariff intact), while China cut retaliatory duties from 125% to 10%, paving the way for a 90-day pause effective around May 14. This de-escalation sharply reduced safe-haven demand, drove the DXY to multi-year lows, and lifted equities (Dow up ~1,200 points intraday).

Intraday flows were dominated by broad USD selling and rotation into risk-sensitive and commodity-linked currencies. Volatility eased as the VIX pulled back from April peaks, but traders remained alert to any signs of negotiation friction during the 90-day window. Asia sessions saw steady risk appetite, with London and New York expected to extend the momentum unless fresh headlines emerge.

Volatility is most likely to spike around any follow-up commentary on the truce or unexpected Fed speakers. Overall, the session favors risk-on positioning with improved liquidity conditions across major asset classes.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts

• US-China 90-day Tariff Truce – Announced May 12, 2025 (effective ~May 14). Status: Confirmed. Why it matters: Major de-escalation after April’s sharp escalation; reduces immediate stagflation risks. Expected volatility impact: High (already triggered strong risk-on move).
• Fed Rate Commentary & Mixed US Data – Ongoing throughout the week. Status: Scheduled. Why it matters: Shapes expectations for Fed tightening path amid shifting trade outlook. Expected volatility impact: Medium.
• Geopolitical Monitoring – Middle East tensions and broader policy uncertainty. Status: Ongoing. Why it matters: Potential oil and safe-haven spillovers. Expected volatility impact: Medium.

No major single-day economic releases dominated May 12, as the tariff news overshadowed the calendar.

4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers

• USD: Bearish – DXY hit multi-year lows on reduced safe-haven demand and softer tightening expectations. Primary driver: Tariff truce. Reaction: Further weakness likely if risk appetite holds.
• EUR: Bullish – EUR/USD lifted toward 1.11–1.15 range on relative Eurozone stability vs US policy flux. Key catalyst: Broad USD selling.
• GBP: Mildly Bullish to Neutral – Supported by risk-on flows around 1.32–1.34; UK data later in week remains a watchpoint.
• JPY: Bullish – USD/JPY pushed toward 144–148 as safe-haven flows eased but broad dollar weakness dominated.
• CHF: Bullish – Safe-haven proxy gained alongside JPY amid lingering uncertainty despite the truce.
• CAD: Bullish – Commodity-linked gains on risk-on sentiment and oil stabilization.
• AUD: Strongly Bullish – Advanced on China exposure and commodity strength; sensitive to risk appetite.
• NZD: Bullish – Extended gains to fresh 2025 highs around 0.5965 on risk-on flows.

Overall, non-USD currencies benefited from the wealth-building environment created by eased trade tensions.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

• Gold (XAUUSD): Mildly Bearish – Intraday profit-taking (~3% drop) as equity rally reduced haven demand. Structural support from central bank buying remains. Key trigger: Any reversal in risk sentiment.
• Silver (XAGUSD): Neutral to Bearish – Followed gold lower but industrial demand provided a floor. Sensitive to growth expectations.
• Oil (WTI/Brent): Mildly Bullish – Surged on revived global growth and demand outlook from the trade agreement. Oversupply concerns linger longer-term.

Drivers centered on the tariff truce boosting growth views (positive for oil) while easing inflation fears (negative for precious metals haven bids).

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

• Bitcoin (BTC): Neutral to Mildly Bullish – Consolidated near $94k–$100k+ with stable dominance (~64%). Supported by equity risk-on flows.
• Ethereum (ETH): Neutral – Traded in $1,800–$1,900+ band; upgrades and options activity noted but less directional than BTC.
• Top 3 by market cap (Solana, XRP, others): Overall Neutral-Bullish – Total market cap approached $3T with rising volumes and institutional interest. Meme coins and alts showed mixed flows.

Risk-on sentiment from the truce lifted crypto alongside equities. Focus remains on liquidity and positioning rather than hype. Digital asset marketing narratives continue to support broader adoption themes.

7. Liquidity & Volatility Map (Singapore Time – SGT)

8. Risk Factors

• Residual tariff negotiation risks during the 90-day pause – sudden reversals could spark sharp USD rebounds and risk-off moves.
• Potential stagflation misalignments if growth/inflation signals diverge.
• Geopolitical hotspots (Middle East oil implications, broader policy uncertainty) could trigger liquidity gaps.
• Correlation breakdowns between equities, commodities, and crypto if truce details disappoint.

Traders should maintain strict risk management and avoid over-leveraging in this event-driven environment.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on May 12, 2025, is a clear risk-on reversal driven by the landmark US-China tariff truce. This has weakened the USD, supported risk currencies (particularly AUD and NZD), stabilized oil, and lifted crypto alongside equities while prompting profit-taking in gold.

Best volatility windows remain the London and New York opens, where flows and any follow-up commentary will be most pronounced. Key risks center on the fragile 90-day truce and lingering policy uncertainties. Stay nimble, focus on confirmed breaks, and position for continued risk appetite while guarding against sudden headline-driven reversals.

Trade smart and manage risk tightly — opportunities remain plentiful for those aligned with the prevailing flows.