Daily Intraday Market Outlook • March 28, 2025

1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets entered the session with a cautious tone as trading participants digested hotter-than-expected US core PCE inflation data alongside the weakest University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading since late 2022. Global risk sentiment remained fragile amid escalating fears of a broader trade war following President Trump’s upcoming reciprocal tariff announcements expected on April 2.

Intraday flows were primarily driven by safe-haven demand into precious metals while risk assets including equities and cryptocurrencies faced selling pressure. Volatility is most likely to spike around any fresh tariff-related headlines or commentary, with Asia likely to see relatively contained moves, London open bringing European flows, and New York session potentially seeing the sharpest reactions as US traders assess the inflation-growth mix.

Overall, the day shaped up as one of consolidation in FX with selective safe-haven bids, while liquidity conditions remained orderly yet thinner than average, increasing the risk of amplified moves on headline surprises.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts & Economic Events

• US Core PCE Inflation (February) – Released earlier: Hotter-than-expected at 2.8% YoY. Why it matters: Reinforced sticky inflation narrative ahead of tariffs. Volatility impact: High
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Lowest since late 2022 with surging inflation expectations. Why it matters: Highlighted “high inflation, low growth” risks. Volatility impact: High
• Tariff Rhetoric & Anticipation – Ongoing commentary ahead of April 2 announcements. Why it matters: Driving safe-haven flows and hedging activity. Volatility impact: High
• German Fiscal Policy Shifts – Earlier support for EUR. Why it matters: Provided counterbalance to USD weakness. Volatility impact: Medium

All times referenced in Singapore Time (SGT) where applicable; events already released on March 28 drove the intraday narrative.

4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers

USD

Price: Consolidating with mild weakening. Intraday bias: Neutral to slightly bearish. Primary driver: Tariff risks, softer growth outlook, and Fed caution on inflation. Reaction to outcomes: Limited near-term strength expected before potential H2 depreciation.

EUR

Price: Around recent levels. Intraday bias: Mild bullish vs USD. Primary driver: Eurozone data improvements and German fiscal shifts. Sensitive to tariff shocks; possible near-term test toward 1.04.

GBP

Price: Hit two-month highs. Intraday bias: Resilient. Primary driver: Fewer expected BoE cuts supporting rate differentials.

JPY

Price: USD/JPY in 150-152 range. Intraday bias: Strengthening (safe-haven). Primary driver: Geopolitical stability and safe-haven flows.

CHF

Intraday bias: Stable safe-haven. Limited domestic policy impulse; flows driven by global risk tone.

CAD

Intraday bias: Mild USD/CAD long bias in some views. Highly trade-sensitive to US tariff developments.

AUD

Intraday bias: Mixed, trade-sensitive. Volatility from US-China dynamics and RBA policy; near five-year lows earlier in March.

NZD

Intraday bias: Volatile, risk-appetite driven. Pressured by tariffs and policy divergence despite occasional highs.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

Gold (XAUUSD)

Price: Record high ~$3,086.70 (spot closed ~$3,074, +0.6%). Intraday bias: Strongly bullish. Key driver: Safe-haven demand from US tariff fears and geopolitical uncertainty. Reaction: Continued bids on any escalation in trade war rhetoric.

Silver (XAGUSD)

Price: ~$33.93 (-1.4% intraday). Intraday bias: Mixed/weak. Less safe-haven momentum than gold; still on track for weekly gains.

Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)

Intraday bias: Neutral with geopolitical sensitivity. Key driver: Potential energy supply ripples from trade tensions. Volatility triggers: Any fresh tariff or Middle East headlines.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

Bitcoin (BTC)

Price: ~$86,809 (-1%). Intraday bias: Bearish tilt. Correlation: Strong risk-off move amid tariff uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment.

Ethereum (ETH)

Price: Down ~3.8%. Intraday bias: Weaker, following BTC.

Top Additional Cryptos (by market cap context)

Overall market showed downside bias with majors under pressure from macro headwinds. Wealth preservation flows favored safe-havens over speculative digital assets on the day. Liquidity and positioning reflected reduced risk appetite; no major scheduled catalysts but headline-driven volatility expected.

7. Liquidity & Volatility Map

Thin trading conditions possible around any holiday effects; bid-ask spreads widened with volatility.

8. Risk Factors

• Unexpected escalation in US tariff rhetoric triggering broader trade war fears
• Further deterioration in consumer sentiment or surprise inflation readings
• Fed policy uncertainty – caution on rate cuts if oil/inflation shocks materialize
• Liquidity gaps in Treasuries and equities amplifying moves
• Correlation breakdowns between risk assets and safe-havens

Traders should remain nimble as “unknown unknowns” from geopolitical developments could rapidly shift flows.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on March 28, 2025 centered on tariff anticipation and the hot US inflation/weak sentiment mix, boosting safe-haven demand for gold while pressuring risk assets and keeping the US Dollar in consolidation mode. Best volatility windows remain tied to any fresh headlines around April 2 tariff details and ongoing central bank commentary.

While liquidity held up, thinner conditions warrant tight risk management. Selective hedging and safe-haven positioning offered the cleanest setups, whereas aggressive risk-on trades faced headwinds. Stay alert, manage positions dynamically, and good luck out there in the markets.

Prepared for professional day traders and short-term macro scalpers.