Daily Intraday Market Outlook • June 26, 2025

1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets opened the session with a clear risk-on tone as the US Dollar continued its broad retreat, hitting multi-year lows against major counterparts. Dovish Fed expectations, softer US labor data, and easing geopolitical tensions following the Iran-Israel ceasefire fueled capital reallocation away from the greenback and toward risk assets.

Intraday flows were primarily driven by USD selling pressure, with traders positioning for potential earlier rate cuts. Asia saw steady USD weakness, London amplified moves in EUR and GBP on positive risk appetite, while New York is expected to focus on any follow-through from US data and lingering policy divergence themes. Volatility is most likely to spike around key data reactions and during the London-New York overlap.

Overall, the session favored non-USD majors and commodities linked to risk sentiment, with thinner summer liquidity amplifying selective moves across FX, metals, and crypto.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts

• US Weekly Jobless Claims – Released earlier today (SGT equivalent morning hours). Status: Confirmed. Why it matters: Slightly softer-than-expected figures reinforced dovish Fed pricing. Expected volatility impact: Medium.
• Iran-Israel Ceasefire Developments – Ongoing monitoring throughout the day. Status: Confirmed holding. Why it matters: Reduced risk premium boosted equities and pressured safe-haven assets. Expected volatility impact: High.
• Anticipation of US Inflation Data – Focus building for upcoming prints. Status: Scheduled in coming sessions. Why it matters: Will shape rate-cut expectations. Expected volatility impact: High.
• US Tax Bill & Tariff Discussions – Progress updates expected. Status: Ongoing. Why it matters: Fiscal policy implications for USD and growth outlook. Expected volatility impact: Medium.

4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers

• USD: Bearish bias. DXY under pressure on dovish Fed signals, weaker labor data, and reduced safe-haven demand post-ceasefire. Traders priced in earlier rate cuts.
• EUR: Bullish bias. EUR/USD surged above 1.1700 (highest since 2021) before consolidating near 1.1680. Primary driver: USD weakness and perceived ECB policy divergence.
• GBP: Bullish bias. GBP/USD broke above 1.3700 to ~1.3720. Supported by sterling resilience, upbeat UK retail sales influences, and broader USD sell-off.
• JPY: Mildly bullish vs USD. USD/JPY traded below 145 within 142-145 range. Yen benefited from USD weakness and potential BoJ normalization signals.
• CHF: Neutral to bullish. Range-bound but supported by defensive safe-haven properties amid lingering uncertainties.
• CAD: Mixed/neutral. USD/CAD reversed from ~1.3750 toward 1.3700 support, heavily influenced by tumbling oil prices and USD dynamics.
• AUD: Mildly bullish. Benefited from USD weakness and stable commodity currency backdrop in a risk-on environment.
• NZD: Mildly bullish. Similar dynamics to AUD with noted resilience in broader commodity views.

Non-USD majors gained the most ground in a weaker dollar environment.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

• Gold (XAUUSD): Neutral to slightly bullish. Traded flat-to-firmer around $3,333–$3,339/oz (up ~0.46%). Drivers: Weaker USD and awaiting US inflation data; limited selling despite Middle East de-escalation.
• Silver (XAGUSD): Bullish bias. Rose sharply ~1% to ~$36.35–$36.63/oz, hitting recent highs on USD weakness and industrial demand.
• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): Volatile/mixed bias (down intraday). Eased after earlier geopolitics-driven spikes as ceasefire held, reducing supply disruption fears. CAD linkage remained key.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidated with mild positive undertones amid broader risk-on flows stemming from USD weakness. Prices remained in a higher range context consistent with 2025 levels, supported by macro liquidity and institutional interest. Top assets by market cap (including XRP) moved in correlation with equities and gold.

No major negative catalysts emerged. Intraday volatility expectations remain moderate, driven primarily by sentiment and positioning rather than specific events.

7. Liquidity & Volatility Map

8. Risk Factors

• Lingering Middle East tensions (nuclear talks in Oman, conflicting damage assessments) could trigger sudden safe-haven bids.
• Hotter-than-expected US inflation data or hawkish Fed rhetoric may reverse current dovish pricing.
• Tariff policy shifts and US tax bill developments carry fiscal uncertainty.
• Thinner summer liquidity may amplify headline-driven gaps in FX and commodities.
• Correlation breakdowns between risk assets, gold, and crypto on geopolitical flare-ups.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on June 26, 2025 remained USD weakness amid dovish Fed expectations, geopolitical relief, and risk-on capital flows. Best volatility windows are centered around the London-New York overlap where liquidity peaks and any data or headline reactions can generate meaningful moves for day traders and macro scalpers.

Key risks center on geopolitical surprises or shifts in rate expectations. Traders should maintain disciplined stops and monitor real-time developments closely. Stay nimble and focus on high-probability setups in this fluid environment.

Trade smart and manage risk responsibly.