Daily Intraday Market Outlook • February 23, 2026

1. INTRADAY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Markets opened the week under a cloud of risk-off sentiment as renewed U.S. tariff uncertainty dominated flows. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down broad emergency tariffs under IEEPA, followed by President Trump’s announcement of a new temporary 15% global baseline tariff, triggered confusion over trade policy, potential refunds, and inflation risks.

Safe-haven assets outperformed, with gold climbing above USD 5,000/oz, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gaining ground, while risk-sensitive currencies and equities faced pressure. Geopolitical tensions surrounding upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations in Geneva added a layer of caution but had not yet escalated into open conflict.

Volatility is expected to remain elevated throughout the London and New York sessions, with intraday flows likely driven by headline reactions and positioning adjustments. Asia session saw initial safe-haven bidding, while the London-New York overlap may see the most pronounced moves in FX and commodities.

2. DAILY TRADING DASHBOARD

3. MACRO CATALYSTS

• Event: Aftermath of U.S. Supreme Court IEEPA tariff ruling & Trump’s new 15% global baseline tariff announcement
  Time: Ongoing headline flow (Friday prior ruling, Monday reaction)
  Status: Confirmed
  Why it matters: Creates confusion over trade policy, refunds, negotiations, and inflation risks
  Expected volatility impact: High
• Event: German IFO Business Climate Index (February)
  Time: 17:00 SGT (09:00 CET / 04:00 GMT)
  Status: Confirmed scheduled
  Why it matters: Gauge of Eurozone economic sentiment amid global uncertainty
  Expected volatility impact: Medium (for EUR pairs)
• Event: Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations (Geneva talks context)
  Time: Monitoring throughout day (upcoming rounds noted)
  Status: Developing
  Why it matters: Adds geopolitical premium to oil and gold
  Expected volatility impact: Medium-High on headlines

4. FX INTRADAY BIAS AND DRIVERS

USD: Mildly bearish – DXY softer on tariff chaos weighing on risk appetite and raising U.S. growth/Fed policy questions. Primary driver: Supreme Court ruling fallout and new levy uncertainty.

EUR: Neutral to mildly bullish vs USD. Supported by relative Eurozone stability; German IFO data in focus. Price action pulling back from 2026 extremes.

GBP: Neutral-bullish vs USD. Sterling finding support via safe-haven rotation amid global uncertainty.

JPY: Bullish bias. Safe-haven demand and potential policy divergence; USD/JPY testing resistance around 154-155.

CHF: Bullish. Classic flight-to-quality flows on tariff and geopolitical risks.

CAD: Mildly bearish vs USD. Sensitive to U.S. trade developments and mixed oil prices.

AUD: Neutral to bearish. Pressured by risk-off sentiment and China exposure via tariffs.

NZD: Similar to AUD – pressured by broader risk aversion.

Overall, USD weakness and JPY/CHF gains dominated, with pairs like EUR/GBP nearing technical breakout zones.

5. COMMODITIES INTRADAY SETUP

Gold (XAUUSD): Bullish bias, climbing above USD 5,000/oz and hitting 3-week highs near or above $5,200 in spots. Strong reaction to weaker USD, safe-haven flows from tariff uncertainty, and Middle East tensions. Sensitive to real yields and risk sentiment.

Silver (XAGUSD): Bullish, surging on industrial/precious metal correlation with gold and risk-off flows.

Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): Mixed to bearish intraday. Brent held above USD 71/bbl amid geopolitical risks (Iran/Strait of Hormuz watch) but faced pressure from global growth concerns tied to tariff chaos. Inventory timing and demand sensitivity remain key.

6. CRYPTO INTRADAY FLOW

Crypto traded in a broader risk-off regime with thin liquidity and derivatives stress. February saw notable declines across major assets.

Bitcoin (BTC): Bearish/neutral bias, testing below $65k levels. Drivers include macro weakness, ETF outflows, whale distribution, and leveraged liquidations amid tariff and equity jitters.

Ethereum (ETH): Bearish bias, trading lower in the contextual $1,800–$2,000 range earlier in the month. Similar macro and liquidity pressures apply.

Top 3 by market cap (BTC, ETH, XRP): Overall risk-off with modest moves. Total market cap remained under pressure from spillover volatility and thin liquidity. Focus remains on sentiment correlation rather than sector-specific hype.

7. LIQUIDITY AND VOLATILITY MAP

8. RISK FACTORS

• Further escalation in U.S. tariff policy leading to retaliatory measures or disrupted trade negotiations.
• Sudden Middle East developments (e.g., U.S.-Iran talks outcomes or Strait of Hormuz risks) impacting oil and gold sharply.
• Liquidity gaps in risk assets and crypto during thin trading periods.
• Correlation breakdowns between traditional safe-havens and equities if tariff confusion deepens.
• Unexpected Fed commentary or data surprises amplifying policy uncertainty.

Traders should maintain tight risk controls and remain flexible as headline-driven moves may override technical levels.

9. CONCLUSION

The dominant intraday theme on February 23, 2026, remains classic risk-off positioning driven by U.S. tariff policy uncertainty and lingering geopolitical caution. Safe-haven assets (gold, JPY, CHF) are favored while USD and risk-correlated names face headwinds. Best volatility windows are likely during the London-New York overlap and around any fresh tariff or Middle East headlines.

Stay disciplined with stops and position sizing in these uncertain conditions. For professional trading strategies and execution support in volatile markets, focus on high-probability setups around the identified catalysts while monitoring real-time flows closely.