Daily Intraday Market Outlook • February 21, 2025

1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets entered Friday with a clear risk-off tone as softer-than-expected US data and persistent Trump tariff uncertainty weighed on sentiment. The Dollar Index extended losses to a fresh year-to-date low near 106.34, on track for a third straight weekly decline, while safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and gold found solid bids.

Intraday flows were driven by reduced fears around aggressive tariffs being fully implemented, combined with hawkish repricing in Japanese yields and disappointing US consumer sentiment and services PMI prints. Volatility is expected to remain elevated into the London and New York sessions, with particular attention around any fresh tariff headlines or weekend positioning flows. Asia saw continued JPY strength, while London and New York are likely to focus on defensive positioning and selective USD shorts.

Overall, traders should prepare for choppy conditions with high-probability volatility windows around data reactions and policy commentary, as markets remain highly sensitive to any shifts in trade policy rhetoric.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts & Economic Events

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Released earlier: Fell sharply to 64.7 (long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.5%). Why it matters: Highlighted consumer belt-tightening. Volatility impact: High.
• US Existing Home Sales – Missed expectations at 4.08M. Why it matters: Added to growth concerns. Volatility impact: Medium-High.
• US Services PMI – Contracted, signaling slowdown. Why it matters: Fueled inflation/growth worries. Volatility impact: High.
• Ongoing Trump Tariff Rhetoric (Mexico, Canada, China) – Continuous headlines. Why it matters: Created policy uncertainty. Volatility impact: High.
• Walmart Guidance – Disappointing outlook. Why it matters: Spotlighted consumer weakness. Volatility impact: Medium.

Ukraine peace negotiation comments provided modest support to EUR but were secondary to US-centric drivers.

4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers

USD

Bearish bias. The greenback weakened on reduced tariff fears and softer US data. USD/CNY broke below 7.25 while yields consolidated lower. Traders watched for any weekend positioning unwind.

EUR

Mildly bullish vs USD (EUR/USD ~1.0430–1.0444). Supported by broad USD softness and modest Ukraine optimism, though pressured by weaker Eurozone PMI data. Medium-term reversal potential noted.

GBP

Neutral to mildly bullish vs USD. Benefited from general USD weakness and risk tone, with limited unique drivers beyond broad market flows.

JPY

Strongly bullish. USD/JPY dipped below 150 on narrowing yield differentials from hawkish BoJ repricing and strong Japanese data. Short EUR/JPY flows recommended; intervention risk remains a cap.

CHF

Defensive / safe-haven bias. Longer-term USD weakness view intact despite potential intervention considerations in forecasts.

CAD

Mixed. Tied to oil prices and tariff exposure, but broad USD weakness offered some relief for the loonie.

AUD

Mildly bullish vs USD. Gained from USD softness and supportive commodity tone.

NZD

Mildly bullish vs USD. Followed similar commodity-linked currency dynamics in the risk-sensitive environment.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

Gold (XAUUSD)

Bullish overall near $2,935–$3,000 despite intraday profit-taking. Safe-haven demand from tariff threats, geopolitical risks, and USD weakness remained the dominant driver. Structural factors including central bank buying stayed intact. Wealth preservation flows continued to support the yellow metal.

Silver (XAGUSD)

Mild pressure from profit-taking but underlying industrial demand and tariff uncertainty provided support. Moved largely in sympathy with gold.

Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)

Mixed to soft bias around the $70–$72 area. Tariff and trade policy uncertainty weighed on demand outlook, while geopolitical headlines added volatility that was tempered by de-escalation hopes.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

Bitcoin and Ethereum showed sideways-to-soft action with elevated correlation to risk sentiment. Top additional cryptocurrencies by market cap (including Solana and others) faced similar deleveraging pressure amid tariff concerns and equity weakness. Institutional ETF inflows provided some relative support to ETH at times, but overall risk-off flows dominated. Traders should monitor liquidity conditions closely into the weekend, with potential for sharp headline-driven moves. Digital asset marketing strategies continue to evolve in this volatile environment.

7. Liquidity & Volatility Map (Singapore Time – SGT)

Thin liquidity expected ahead of weekend, increasing potential for gap risks on Sunday open.

8. Risk Factors

• Escalation in Trump tariff rhetoric or surprise policy announcements
• Further deterioration in US consumer confidence or retail data
• Potential BoJ verbal or actual intervention in FX or JGB markets
• Geopolitical flare-ups in Ukraine or Middle East adding sudden safe-haven bids
• Correlation breakdown between equities, crypto, and USD if weekend risk aversion spikes
• Liquidity gaps in thin Friday-to-Monday transition

Traders are advised to maintain tight risk controls and avoid over-leveraging into the weekend.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on February 21, 2025, remained USD weakness and safe-haven demand amid soft US data and ongoing tariff uncertainty. JPY outperformed on yield dynamics while gold held resilient near record territory, offering clear defensive opportunities for prop desks and scalpers.

Best volatility windows lie around any fresh policy headlines and the London-New York overlap. Key risks center on weekend positioning and potential surprise developments. Stay nimble, manage exposure conservatively, and focus on high-probability setups in this fluid environment. Professional traders continue to prioritize disciplined execution in such conditions.