Daily Intraday Market Outlook • April 28, 2025

Markets enter the Asian session on April 28, 2025, with a cautiously optimistic tone following the 90-day tariff pause after “Liberation Day” announcements. Global risk sentiment remains mixed — partial recovery in equities and risk assets contrasts with lingering uncertainty around US-China trade developments. The US Dollar trades modestly softer while safe-haven currencies and precious metals attract flows.

Intraday flows are likely driven by position squaring ahead of key US data later this week (PCE on April 30 and NFP on May 2) and ongoing tariff-related headlines. Volatility is expected to pick up during the London-New York overlap, particularly around any fresh US-China commentary or data surprises.

Session behavior: Quiet-to-moderate in early Asia, building momentum into London open, with highest volatility windows during New York hours when US macro flows dominate.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

Asset	Intraday Bias	Key Driver	Key Level Focus	Volatility Window
DXY / USD	Mild Bearish	Tariff pause optimism & risk sentiment	Support near recent lows	NY session data flow
EUR/USD	Mild Bullish	USD softness + Eurozone resilience	1.08–1.12 range edges	London open
GBP/USD	Neutral to Mild Upside	UK PMI vs trade pause sentiment	Choppy resistance	London-NY overlap
USD/JPY	Bearish (JPY stronger)	Safe-haven bids + hot Tokyo CPI	Multi-decade high rejection	Tokyo / London
XAUUSD (Gold)	Mild Bullish	Safe-haven demand & bargain hunting	$3,300 – $3,500 zone	Any tariff headline
WTI/Brent Oil	Neutral / Two-way	Demand concerns from tariffs	$60–$66 range	NY inventory time
BTC/USD	Neutral to Mild Upside	Risk appetite recovery	$92,800 – $94,888	US session equity correlation

3. Key Macro Catalysts

US-China Tariff Developments (“Liberation Day” + 90-day pause) — Ongoing negotiations and any fresh statements. Time: Continuous headlines. Status: Live. Why it matters: Drives risk sentiment and safe-haven flows. Expected volatility impact: High.
Tokyo CPI (already released) — 3.5% y/y (hotter than 3.3% exp). Time: Early Asia. Status: Confirmed. Why it matters: Bolsters BoJ hawkish tilt and JPY support. Expected volatility impact: Medium.
Upcoming US Data — Job openings, PCE (April 30), NFP (May 2). Time: Later this week (SGT afternoon/evening). Status: Scheduled. Why it matters: Shapes Fed expectations amid tariff uncertainty. Expected volatility impact: High.
BoJ Quarterly Outlook Signals — Time: Recent / ongoing. Status: Monitored. Why it matters: Reinforces JPY resilience. Expected volatility impact: Medium.

4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers

USD: Mild downside bias. Primary driver: Tariff uncertainty and risk sentiment shifts. Key catalyst: Upcoming US data. Reaction: Further softening on positive trade news; potential rebound on hot inflation data.
EUR: Mild upside bias. EUR/USD supported above recent lows. Primary driver: USD weakness + Eurozone resilience. Reaction: Range expansion on positive risk tone.
GBP: Neutral to mild upside. Choppy action with limited downside. Primary driver: UK PMI weakness offset by trade pause optimism.
JPY: Stronger safe-haven bias. USD/JPY under pressure after multi-decade highs. Primary driver: Hot Tokyo CPI and BoJ outlook.
CHF: Upside bias as classic safe-haven. Benefits from USD softness and risk-off flows.
CAD: Mixed bias. Tied to oil prices and direct US trade exposure.
AUD: Underperformer. AUD/USD pressured by commodity linkage and China trade tensions. Link: wealth building through diversified exposure in volatile times.
NZD: Mixed, with some G10 outperformance but softer NZD/AUD crosses. Driven by risk sentiment.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

Gold (XAUUSD) ~$3,335 (mild upside bias). Reaction to real yields and USD weakness; safe-haven demand from tariffs. Key trigger: Any escalation or de-escalation headlines. Focus on bargain-hunting near $3,300.
Silver (XAGUSD) ~$32.91 (mild downside/pausing). More industrial-sensitive; moves with gold but amplified volatility from trade-war concerns.
Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) ~$60–$66 range (neutral/two-way). Pressured by potential demand slowdown from tariffs; geopolitical undertones provide support floor. Watch inventory data timing.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

Bitcoin ~$92,800–$94,888 (neutral to mild upside bias, closed ~$94,774 +0.7%). Ethereum and top assets (including XRP) showing recovery tones. Bias driven by improved risk appetite on tariff pause hopes. Correlation with equities remains key; ETF flows and macro uncertainty continue to influence positioning.

Volatility expectations: Amplified on any fresh policy or trade headlines. Focus on flow and sentiment rather than hype. Marketing strategies for crypto projects may gain traction in stabilizing sentiment environments.

7. Liquidity & Volatility Map (SGT)

Time Window (SGT)	Expected Activity	Volatility Level
Early Asia (00:00 – 08:00)	Position squaring, JPY flows post-CPI	Low to Medium
London Open (15:00 – 17:00)	FX and commodity momentum build	Medium
London-NY Overlap (21:00 – 01:00)	Peak flows, potential headline reactions	High
NY Session (21:00 – 05:00)	Data anticipation & risk asset rotation	High

8. Key Risk Factors

Sudden escalation or contradictory headlines in US-China tariff negotiations — could trigger sharp safe-haven bids or risk-off moves.
US data surprises (especially PCE) altering Fed expectations amid tariff-induced growth/inflation cross-currents.
Liquidity gaps during thin Asia hours or post-headline spikes.
Correlation breakdowns between FX, commodities, and crypto on geopolitical flare-ups.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on April 28, 2025, remains the delicate balance between tariff-pause optimism and unresolved policy uncertainty. Traders should monitor safe-haven flows into JPY, CHF, and Gold while watching for risk-on rotations that support EUR, GBP, and selective crypto exposure.

Best volatility windows center on the London-NY overlap and any fresh trade or data headlines. Maintain tight risk management and stay agile — headline risk remains elevated. Professional traders continue to prioritize disciplined execution in this environment.