Daily Intraday Market Outlook • March 6, 2025

1. Intraday Executive Summary

Markets on March 6, 2025, adopted a risk-on tone following the Trump administration’s announcement of a one-month delay and exemption on auto tariffs for Canada and Mexico, as well as USMCA-compliant goods until April 2. This development eased immediate trade tensions, triggering strong equity rallies (DAX +3.5%, STOXX 50 +1.9%) and contributing to broader USD weakness.

Intraday flows were primarily driven by relief over tariff postponements, positive European data, and anticipation surrounding the ECB rate decision and U.S. jobless claims. Volatility was most pronounced during European data releases and the ECB press conference, with London and New York sessions expected to see continued rotation into commodity-linked and high-beta currencies.

Overall session behavior pointed to selective risk appetite: Asia opened with cautious yen strength, London focused on eurozone momentum, while New York traders monitored U.S. data for confirmation of softer USD bias. Highest volatility windows centered around ECB announcements and U.S. trade balance release.

2. Daily Trading Dashboard

3. Macro Catalysts & Events

• Tariff Developments (Ongoing intraday) – Trump administration delays auto tariffs on Canada/Mexico and USMCA goods until April 2. Why it matters: Immediate risk-on catalyst, equity rally, USD softening. Volatility impact: High
• Germany & UK Construction PMI – Released during European session. Why it matters: Supported EUR and GBP strength. Volatility impact: Medium
• ECB Rate Decision & Lagarde Press Conference – European afternoon (approx. 20:15–21:30 SGT). Why it matters: Key policy signal for euro. Volatility impact: High
• US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims & January Trade Balance – U.S. morning (approx. 21:30–22:30 SGT). Why it matters: Direct impact on USD flows. Volatility impact: Medium-High

4. FX Intraday Bias & Drivers

EUR: Stronger bias. EUR/USD near 1.0796–1.085. Primary driver: relative USD softness and positive European data flows. Likely to extend gains on dovish ECB signals.

GBP: Firm bias, trading at the top of majors. Supported by UK construction PMI and steady risk sentiment. Benefits from broad USD weakness.

JPY: Bullish (stronger yen) bias. USD/JPY pressured around 148.24–148.90 with resistance at 148.40–148.90. Safe-haven flows and BOJ expectations provided support; downside risk to 147.30 on breaks.

CHF: Strong bias. USD/CHF under pressure as CHF ranked near top of majors on safe-haven demand.

CAD: Weaker bias, sitting at the bottom of majors. Pressured by lower oil prices and USD dynamics.

AUD: Mildly bullish. AUD/USD climbed on risk-on moves and commodity links.

NZD: Positive bias, tracking broader risk sentiment and Wall Street gains.

USD: Mixed to softer bias amid tariff-delay relief and broader risk-on environment.

5. Commodities Intraday Setup

Gold (XAUUSD): Steady to mildly positive bias. Held firm on USD softness and geopolitical undercurrents. Sensitive to real yields and safe-haven flows; tariff uncertainty provided underlying support.

Silver (XAGUSD): Positive tilt with industrial demand support. Copper rally helped lift prices; remained sensitive to overall risk sentiment.

Oil (WTI/Brent): Steady bias. Crude prices stable despite lower levels weighing on CAD. Global supply concerns and early geopolitical tensions offered background support without dramatic moves on the day.

6. Crypto Intraday Flow

Bitcoin: Bullish recovery, surging ~6.23% to around $92,328. Driven by risk-on relief from tariff delays and anticipation of regulatory clarity ahead of the White House Crypto Summit.

Ethereum: Rose ~6.42% to ~$2,316, tracking broader momentum.

Top additional cryptocurrencies by market cap included XRP (+5.12%). Total crypto market cap pushed beyond $3 trillion at times. Bias remained bullish on improved sentiment and liquidity, though sensitive to news flow. Volatility expectations stayed elevated with equity correlation.

7. Liquidity & Volatility Map (Singapore Time – SGT)

8. Key Intraday Risk Factors

• Tariff policy flip-flops creating sudden headline risk and potential rapid reversals in risk sentiment.
• ECB outcome surprises or dovish/hawkish tilt from Lagarde that could sharply reposition EUR crosses.
• U.S. data beats/misses impacting USD flows and real-yield sensitivity for gold and JPY.
• Geopolitical undercurrents in the Middle East adding tail risk to oil and safe-haven assets.
• Liquidity gaps during thin overlaps or post-data reactions.

9. Conclusion

The dominant intraday theme on March 6, 2025, was tariff-relief-driven risk-on flows that softened the USD and supported EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, as well as a strong recovery in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Best volatility windows remain clustered around the ECB press conference and U.S. data releases, offering clear execution opportunities for directional and breakout trades.

Traders should maintain tight risk management given the potential for policy headlines to shift sentiment rapidly. Selective long bias in risk-sensitive assets with protective stops remains the prudent approach in this environment. Stay nimble and monitor real-time flows closely.

Trade smart and scale with conviction when setups align.