Geopolitical Tensions and Precious Metals Surge Define the Week

Market Review for the week of January 19–23, 2026. This week has been characterized by extreme geopolitical volatility—specifically centered around the “Greenland Crisis”—and a historic breakout in precious metals.

Key Takeaways:

The Greenland Crisis fueled global geopolitical uncertainty, driving safe-haven demand and impacting European equities.
Gold prices soared past $4,900/oz, nearing the psychological $5,000 mark, while silver also hit record highs.
The USD remained firm due to safe-haven flows, while the JPY and CHF strengthened amid risk aversion.
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin consolidated above $90,000, with institutional demand driving the market.
Oil prices stabilized despite geopolitical disruptions, with Brent at $65.24 and WTI near $60.62.

Significant Market Events Summary (Jan 19–23, 2026)

Asset / Key Event	Details	Market Impact
Geopolitics: “The Greenland Grapple”	President Trump reaffirmed 10%–25% tariff threats against EU/NATO countries to secure U.S. access to Greenland.	Risk-Off: Massive capital flight from EUR and European equities into Gold and Safe-Haven currencies (CHF, JPY).
Precious Metals: Record Breakouts	Gold hit a historic $4,917/oz; Silver surged to $96.58/oz amid systemic risk concerns and DOJ probes into the Fed.	Bullish: Historic highs reached as investors abandoned the USD and bonds due to fears of central bank politicization.
USD / Fed Independence	DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding “building renovations” and political interference.	Neutral/Volatile: Initial USD sell-off followed by a recovery as “Safe-Haven” demand for the Greenback offset domestic scandal.
U.S. Core PCE (Nov/Dec)	The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge came in at 2.8% Y/Y, remaining stubbornly above the 2% target.	Hawkish: Reinforced the “higher-for-longer” narrative, capping equity gains and keeping 10-year yields above 4.2%.
Bitcoin (BTC)	Dropped from $95,500 to $91,000 early in the week before stabilizing near the $92,000–$93,000 range.	Bearish/Neutral: BTC behaved as a high-beta risk asset rather than a hedge; however, IBIT ETF inflows acted as a price floor.
Bank of Japan (BoJ)	Policy meeting held rates at 0.75%; PM Takaichi threatened a snap election amid soaring JGB yields.	Bullish (JPY): USD/JPY faced downward pressure as JGB yields hit their highest levels since 1999, attracting carry trade unwinds.
Energy: WTI & Brent Oil	Prices fluctuated between $59 and $65 due to Kazahkstan supply disruptions and Iran/Greenland tensions.	Mixed: Geopolitical supply risk provided a floor, but global trade-war fears (Greenland tariffs) dampened the demand outlook.

1. Key Geopolitical & Economic Catalysts

The “Greenland Crisis”: Market sentiment was dominated by the escalating diplomatic friction between the U.S., Denmark, and NATO. President Trump’s assertion of “permanent U.S. access” to Greenland triggered significant safe-haven flows. This geopolitical uncertainty acted as a “wrecking ball” for European equities and a massive tailwind for gold.
U.S. Political Pressure on the Fed: The Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve, escalating tensions between the administration and the central bank. This, alongside the lawsuit against JPMorgan and Jamie Dimon, created a volatile backdrop for the USD.
Inflation Data: U.S. Core PCE (Nov) came in at 2.8%, remaining stubbornly above the 2% target, while Canadian inflation surprised to the upside at 2.4%, tempering expectations for aggressive BoC easing.

2. Major Currencies Performance

USD (Bullish/Neutral): The Dollar Index remained firm, benefiting from safe-haven demand despite domestic political noise. Traders are currently eyeing the Manufacturing and Services PMI data coming later tonight (NY Time) to gauge the health of the 2026 expansion.
EUR (Bearish): The Euro struggled near the 1.1800 handle as Trump’s tariff threats weighed on European growth prospects. Consumer confidence remains fragile amid the regional trade war fears.
GBP (Neutral): Sterling held steady around 1.3450. While UK unemployment rose slightly to 5.1%, softer CPI data earlier in the week has markets pricing in a potential BoE pivot later this quarter.
JPY (Bullish): The Yen saw renewed demand as a hedge against geopolitical risk. National Core CPI cooled to 2.4%, and the BOJ is expected to maintain its policy rate below 0.75% in its upcoming outlook report.
CAD (Neutral): USD/CAD is hovering near 1.3850. The Loonie was caught between supportive higher-than-expected inflation data (2.4%) and the drag from volatile oil prices.
AUD & NZD (Mixed): The AUD found support near 4.1% unemployment and cautious RBA remarks. Conversely, the NZD/USD faced selling pressure, retreating from 0.5850 as risk aversion hit the “Antipodean” currencies harder.
CHF (Bullish): As the quintessential safe-haven, the Franc outperformed many majors this week, bolstered by the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meetings in Davos, where global leaders discussed the Arctic security crisis.

3. Major Commodities

Gold (XAU): The standout performer. Gold hit a historic milestone, smashing past $4,900/oz to reach a peak of $4,917.65. Analysts are now eyeing the psychological $5,000 mark as a realistic target for the coming sessions.
Silver (XAG): Followed Gold’s lead with even higher beta, surging to a record $96.58/oz. The “compelling fundamental narrative” of silver as both an industrial and reserve asset has made it a favorite for 2026.
Oil (WTI/Brent): Brent settled around $65.24 and WTI near $60.62. Prices were supported by force majeure at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field and U.S. military seizures of Venezuela-linked tankers, though a projected global surplus for Q1 2026 capped gains.

4. Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin (BTC): BTC is currently consolidating above $90,000. Institutional demand remains the primary driver, with 2026 predictions suggesting it could act as a legitimate “sovereign reserve asset” amid the de-dollarization trend.
Ethereum (ETH): ETH saw modest stabilization after a period of intense selling pressure, following the broader altcoin market’s attempt to find a floor.
Top 3 (Market Cap – SOL, BNB, XRP):
- XRP: Defended the $1.90 support level vigorously, bolstered by steady ETF inflows despite retail caution.
- Solana (SOL): Showed resilience, benefiting from the narrative of institutional “Web3” adoption in Europe.
- BNB: Remained steady, tracking the general recovery in crypto market sentiment.

Analyst Outlook (Friday NY Session):

Tonight’s U.S. Flash PMI (9:45 AM NY Time) and the BOJ’s Outlook Report will be the final volatility drivers for the week.

Strategy: Stay long on Gold on minor pullbacks. In FX, watch for a potential breakout in USD/JPY if geopolitical headlines over Greenland intensify before the weekend close. Monitor the $5,000 Gold level closely; a breach tonight would trigger massive algorithmic buy orders.

Conclusion: A Week That Redefined Market Dynamics

The events of this week underscore how quickly markets can shift in response to geopolitical and economic developments. From record-breaking gold prices to heightened tensions over Greenland, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where no assumption is safe.

As we move forward, one question looms large: How will policymakers and investors navigate this era of uncertainty? For now, staying informed and agile is more critical than ever.

Stay tuned for more updates from TrustScoreFX—your trusted source for market insights in an ever-changing world.